Cerberus hasn’t reset yet

Cerberus hasn’t fully reset. This is the first time in all historic data that it bounces back up before first finding a bottom.

It’s pretty difficult to forecast what would happen first but very important to recognise that Cerberus hasn’t fully hit bottom yet as it normally does and that “unfinished job” might either stay like that for a while, indefinitely or get done sooner than expected.

Personally I’m inclined to think that thanks to the bullish sentiment we are seeing the market maker might use it at its advantage “allowing” the price to head to the mid 18K or even right below 20K to hunt those shorts that were thinking that BTC would be sub 10K by now and went all in on 25x to 100x. Pain!

Those higher levels are on the table just because its too much liquidity to be ignored and no financial advice, but if we do get to those two levels I’ll be selling my BTC long in chunks expecting us to head back down to my original 15.9K target mentioned a few days in announcements on Discord.

I can always be wrong but I just think that they are playing with us and the only reason they are not going straight to 15.9K is due to the relatively better market sentiment this week. If you can’t beat them, join them…but make no mistake once they see weakness they will strike and push the price back down 🔨.

The liquidity right below 16K is way larger than below 20K and sometimes MM enjoys having desert before getting the main dish. If we head to 15.9K or below from right below 20K that would cause ALTs to sell into stable coins enough to see Cerberus resetting below 20 and triggering a warning BUY which would be a great signal to use in conjunction with other indicators (and your own research) to switch on more aggressive bots.

99% of long bots would perform overall better in a month where they were switched on right after a dump instead of leaving them switched on all month long.

December CPR levels

Each and every month we check the CPR levels to understand the prices that are at reach with the highest probability.

As discussed in the past live stream we were expecting to see December pivots located lower than the ones in October making it easier for price to be able to reclaim those levels.

Without the biased from the liquidation levels and Cerberus, purely focusing on CPR model we can say that in order for price to become bullish in a more sustainable way it will have to move back above 18.5K which is the top of the 3 pivots (white lines). Then price will also have to move and hold the first monthly resistance located at 20.6K. I hope that I’m wrong but I don’t see that happening just yet.

In October the first resistance was at 21.6K and we were about to get there on the exact day FTX collapsed.

In order for price to get to any of the lower two levels of support at 12K or 8.5K we would need pretty HUGE level of black swan event. If FTX wasn’t able to, I guess we would need something in the range of USDT collapsing or….Binance.com I don’t think the contagion to smaller companies is enough to drive BTC there. And yes, SP500 is due for some correction, DXY is also due for some pumping to the 108/110 range resistance.