There are 3 most likely scenarios.
Sideways zone
The are between the yellow and gray boxes – 21.5K to 24.3K we can consider it as the sideways zone. Price might consolidate between these boundaries and wait for SP500/NASDAQ to make the next move. That move might be bullish if we can hold the daily uptrend or if we re enter the yearly downwards slopping trend line bearish. Watch my past 2 streams!
In this zone I might take a few scalps for a few hours but I’m neither bullish/bearish yet.
Parabolic continuation
If BTC breaks above and closes a daily candle above the yellow box then the chances of a continuation grow significantly. But here’s the catch: the breakout most likely won’t give enough time to react and by the time it breaks out the move towards 28K might be so explosive that you might only notice it once it’s already late.
There’s even the chance that price takes a look above the yellow box to hunt liquidity just to get back inside again. Because of this we have to manage risk properly: any exit above the yellow line needs a stop loss in case it fails. Failing an exit increases the chances of coming back to the gray or even the red area.
Bearish case
The bearish case is very simple. We don’t want to break below the FTX collapse price which coincides with the gray box. Breaking below can easily take us to the red box which is the lower end of our value zone and is the door for potential new lower lows. In order to get us here general markets should get slammed big. This is possible. If SEC confirms the rumours of a new rate spike of 0.5% that’d be a surprise and a disappointment to the market. And you know, market doesn’t like uncertainty.
If the rumours are discarded officially the pullback will turn around to the upside extremely fast too so I think it’s worth keeping more than one eye on this!
